¹ 3, 2005
¹ 2, 2002
The special section of the magazine is dedicated to the memory of German Diligenskiy. It reads about Diligenskiy as a scientist and as a person. The scientist’s short autobiography and the list of his most significant works are given. And, finally, the last interview with Diligenskiy is published. In the interview he, in particular, shares his ideas about Russian political science.
¹ 5, 2001
The author believes that on the eve of the XXI-st century, in fact, a new political epoch related to the name of the new president started. The article outlines this epoch. An attempt is made to define the vector of political development and to give the scenarios of the development for the nearest future.
I. Bunin analyzes the phenomenon of Vladimir Putin’s stable popu larity with the Russian people. The author researches the change o f the role of the government and oligarchs and the new situation at the State Duma and the Federation Council.
According to I. Bunin, the actions of the public power have generally become more efficient, and the behavior of the political class has become more predictable. The danger of political cataclysms and of abrupt returning to the past is much weaker comparing with the previous years.
The article states that the events of the September 11, 2001 put in motion the world order, which was shaped in the previous decade. In then- forecast, the authors make an attempt to outline both the new transitional world order and the new geopolitical paradigm, in the framework of which, the new role of American allies, the changing rules of the game, the relations with the Muslim world and Russia are reviewed.
The authors characterize the genre of political forecast and analyze the experience gained in this area by the Center of Political Technologies. The logic of the Center of Political Technologies forecasts is not, as a rule, limited by the prophecy. It is the definition of the combinations and consequences of each of the variants possible at the start. According to the authors, such models create a full picture and may act as the starting point for political planning.
This article was first published in 1990 in the Danish magazine «Udenrigs», and is an example of the realized forecast. It predicted the disintegration of the USSR and the non-violent character of the coming disintegration, M.S. Gorbachev’s resign, the real federalization of the RSFSR and the increase of the corruption and organized crime.
¹ 3, 2000
The authors focus their attention on the results and prospects of the Russian federal reform. The authors review the first actions of Mr. Putin’s Administration and Kremlin’s further possible steps in this direction, and give would-be scenarios of federal structures’ development. They believe that the most probable way of the federal districts development is their strengthening as the basis of the new national administrative-territorial division, as well as empowering of the Presidential Plenipotentiary Representatives with the real mechanisms of control over their territories under a decisive suppression of any disintegration processes. As far as the Federation Council, according to the authors, it will most likely turn into an analogue of the German Bundesrat, and will be influenced by both federal and regional executive authorities. Besides, analyzing regional leaders’ reaction to the current reforms, and the levers which the Kremlin has to influence the results of regional elections the authors come to the conclusion that the success of the federal reform will largely depend on the fact of how much thoroughly the federal authorities think out their actions pointed to regional elite. The authors believe that this very factor will ensure national stability, and will allow to take into consideration the interests of all the main actors of the political process, thus avoiding the stuck of the reform.
¹ 2, 1999
The article analyses the political situation in Russia six months ahead of the elections to the State Duma, describes the balance of political forces of parties and their leaders and assesses their potential strategies and chances. The author shows that the third parliamentary elections and the second re-elections of the President in Russia will take place in the situation of a deep socio-economic crisis and of a still undeveloped party system and vaguely structured political interests. However he argues that assessment of the forthcoming electoral process as chaotic and unpredictable is wrong. He believes that the existing juridical and institutional frameworks and stable electoral preferences will provide a relatively high level of stability and predictability of behaviour of the main political institutions and participants of the electoral race.
¹ 3, 1998
The leading experts of the Center of Political Technologies consider the political situation in Russia on the threshold of a two-year long electoral marathon – the Parliamentary electoral campaign for the State Duma of the RF in December 1999 and the Presidential elections in summer 2000. The authors analyze the legal and political framework of the electoral campaigns, describe the balance of political forces and their respective leaders, give forecasts concerning their electoral strategy and assess the potential results of the parties.
¹ 3, 1997
This paper draws a politica; portrait of Boris Nemtsov, First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia and the alleged «heir apparent» to the incumbent President. It includes Nemtsov’s political biography as a member of the first post-Communist Russian parliament and governor of Nizhny Novgorod, the motives for his transfer to the federal government, Nemtsov’s performance in the cabinet position and his relations with other key figures of the Russian political scene (President Yeltsin, Prime Minister Chernomyrdin and another first deputy premier Chubais, leader of «Yabloko» political bloc Yavlinsky). The concluding chapter discusses Nemtsov’s political strengths and weaknesses and looks at various scenarios of his future political career.
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