Isaev Leonid

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  • № 3, 2015

    • Ukrainian Mosaic An Attempt at Quantitative Analysis of Ukrainian Electoral Statistics

      On the basis of the mathematical analysis of the electoral statistics A.Korotaev and L.Isaev come to the conclusion that V.Yanukovych lost Ukraine long before the events of 2013–2014. The research conducted by the authors shows that before the start of these events most of the country’s south-east regions that supported the Party of Regions were characterized by a very high level of political passivity, which contrasted with the Central and especially Western Ukraine, as well as Kiev, where high political activity of the population was combined with pro-orange sentiments. Thus, in November 2013 Yanukovych found himself in a very disadvantageous position, which largely led to his downfall.

      DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2015-78-3-91-110

  • № 2, 2014


      On the basis of the comparative analysis of the protests that swept countries of the North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 and Ukraine in 2013–2014, the authors conclude that these protest movements are fully consistent with the phenomenon referred to in the Arab political culture as “fitna” (strife, rebellion). Having fixed a whole array of parameters (heterogeneity of social composition and political attitudes of protest participants, ambiguity of their demands, unresponsiveness to rational arguments etc.) that make unrest in the Arab world and in Ukraine similar to the traditional “fitna”, L.Isaev and A.Shishkina also draw attention to the specific features of the modern “fitna” associated with the development of internet technologies. According to their conclusion, the emergence of fundamentally new means of mass communication alters the format of political activity in the world to such an extent that authorities are often unable to adequately assess a threat posed by protesters and thus, commit fatal errors.

      DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2014-73-2-21-33