Korotayev Andrey

Internet and Terrorist Activity in Countries with Different Political Regimes (Quantitative Analysis)

Although many scholarly works have already been devoted to the influence of Internet technologies and social media on protest activity, their impact on the intensity of terrorist attacks has not yet been studied. To fill the gap, N.Khokhlov and A.Korotayev analyzed the relationship between the spread of the Internet and the number of terrorist attacks. The authors hypothesized that an increase in the number of Internet users in autocracies should be positively related to the intensity of terrorist attacks — this is because when political regime controls media, it is the Internet that opens up opportunities for the rapid and wide dissemination of information about terrorist attacks. In countries with democratic or hybrid regimes, where at least part of the media operates relatively freely, such connection should be absent. To test the hypothesis, the authors employed negative binomial regression models. The data were taken from the Global Terrorism Database and the World Bank database.

The study conducted by the authors partially confirmed their main hy- pothesis. The analysis of the empirical data showed that in autocracies the spread of the Internet indeed positively affects growth of the intensity of ter- rorist attacks, while in countries with democratic and hybrid political regimes such relationship is not significant. At the same time, the obtained results do not allow us to state that the revealed differences stem from the variation in the media environment under different types of political regimes. Testing this hypothesis requires further research and refinement of the research methods, in particular, shifting the focus to the level of individual regions, as well as stu- dying causal mechanisms using mixed methods and Bayesian statistics.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2020-97-2-67-86

Pages: 67-86

How Syrian Conflict and Its Migration Crisis Echoed in the Southern Regions of Russia (On the Example of Karachay-Cherkessia)

Although, in comparison to other foreign parties to the Syrian conflict, Russia plays a very modest role in resolving the refugee crisis, the latter echoed in Russia as well. One of the consequences of this crisis is that it brought the Circassian issue back to the domestic political agenda in Russia — first and foremost, at the regional level.

After the start of the civil war in Syria the Circassians — descendants of the Adyghes who were forced to move to the Ottoman Empire in 19th century — began to migrate to Russia. Most of them settled in the Northern Cauca- sus — Adygea, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia. However, they faced a lot of problems, especially those Circassians who moved to Karachay- Cherkessia: its authorities do not favor an inflow of Circassian migrants because they fear a change in the balance of the ethnical forces in the region and reflect the attitudes of the Karachai majority. As a result, while in Adygea and Kabardino-Balkaria repatriates from Syria obtain support from the regional 

authorities, in Karachay-Cherkessia they can rely only on the local philanthropists and the Circassian community.

The article is devoted to the analysis of the key factors that hamper Circassians’ repatriation to Karachay-Cherkessia and impede their adaptation to living in the region. The empirical data come from the surveys of the citizens from the four Circassian villages with a significant number of repatriates as well as interviews with the Circassian migrants from Syria who settled in the region.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2019-92-1-167-185

Pages: 167-185

Share of Students in Total Poppulation and Socio-Political Destabilization. Quantitative Analysis

The article continues a series of works of the authoring team headed by A.Korotayev about the sources of socio-political instability. The study confirmed that students as a social and age group can be considered a force that exerts a destabilizing effect on the socio-political situation in the country. The authors found statistically significant positive correlations between the share of students in the total population and important indicators of socio-political destabilization such as the intensity of general strikes, riots and especially anti-government demonstrations. At the same time, the revealed negative correlation between the proportion of students in the population and the intensity of coups and coup attempts indicates that the growing number of students may play not only a destabilizing, but also, in a certain sense, a stabilizing role.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2017-87-4-35-47

Pages: 35-47

GDP Per Capita, Intensity of Anti-Government Demonstrations and Level of Education (Cross-national Analysis)

The article continues a series of works of the authoring team headed by A.Korotayev about the sources of social and political instability. The research conducted by the authors shows that the previously discovered statistically significant positive correlation between GDP per capita, PPP (in the range up to $20,000), and the intensity of anti-government demonstrations, is partly conditioned by the factors of education level and political regime. At the same time, these factors do not fully explain the identified correlation, indicating the need for further research.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2017-84-1-127-143

Intermediate Types of Political Regimes and Socio-Political Instability (Quantitative Cross-National Analysis)

The article attempts to test the hypothesis that consolidated democracies and consecutive autocracies are more stable than intermediate regimes. The research conducted by the authors, with the help of data from CNTS and Freedom House, in general confirmed the presence of the U-curve relationship between the type of regime and the level of socio-political instability. At the same time, the study allowed to reveal a number of important details. Empirical tests have shown that (a) the U-curve relationship between socio-political instability and the type of regime is usually characterized by a significant asymmetry; (b) the nature of this asymmetry may vary over time; (c) since the end of the Cold War, the U-curve relationship between regime type and level of socio-political instability has weakened considerably and has undergone significant changes. If in 1973–1991 the highest level of socio-political instability was demonstrated by unconsolidated democracies, in 1992–2012 it became more typical for inconsistent autocracies.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2016-82-3-31-51

Ukrainian Mosaic An Attempt at Quantitative Analysis of Ukrainian Electoral Statistics

On the basis of the mathematical analysis of the electoral statistics A.Korotaev and L.Isaev come to the conclusion that V.Yanukovych lost Ukraine long before the events of 2013–2014. The research conducted by the authors shows that before the start of these events most of the country’s south-east regions that supported the Party of Regions were characterized by a very high level of political passivity, which contrasted with the Central and especially Western Ukraine, as well as Kiev, where high political activity of the population was combined with pro-orange sentiments. Thus, in November 2013 Yanukovych found himself in a very disadvantageous position, which largely led to his downfall.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2015-78-3-91-110