Lokshin Ilya

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  • 2, 2017

    • Difficulties of Transition: Political Economy of Modernization Barriers

      The article considers from the perspective of Political Science and Economics the problem of “development traps” — mechanisms that block welfare growth in backward countries and preclude their transition to the category of prosperous states. On the basis of the existing theories such as the “middle income trap”, “Malthusian trap” etc., A.Akhremenko, I.Lokshin and Ye.Yureskul offer an integrated approach to solving this problem based on total factor productivity (TFP). With the support of mathematical models and theo- retical constructions, they reveal a mechanism of economic growth blocking: the decreasing returns to economic productivity from increasing state poten- tial for violence. The authors empirically test their hypotheses about the relationship between development barriers, political institutions and economic productivity on 149 countries across the time span of 1990—2013.

      DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2017-85-2-5-31

  • 3, 2015

    • Economic Growth and Policy Choice in Authoritarian Regimes: The Missing Link

      The paper analyzes the prerequisites of economic growth in an authoritarian context. On the basis of the analysis of the formal dynamic model, the authors show that the total factor productivity (TFP) is even more important for the perspectives of economic growth in non-democratic regimes than the long time planning horizon of the key economic agents. According to their conclusion, it is TFP that constitutes a key factor in determining sustainability of an economy under shocks caused by bad policies. In addition, when TFP is high it is easier to align economic preferences of different social groups. The theoretical approach utilized in the paper allows taking into account the three layers of explaining economic successes and failures simultaneously: the layer of the policy choice made by power elites, the layer of political institutions, and the layer of the fundamental economic factors that define the prospects for the economic development.

      DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2015-78-3-50-74

  • 4, 2011