№ 3, 2009
Despite the progress achieved in information technologies and creation of knowledge economy basics, the developed countries already before the global crisis have faced a substantial slowdown in GDP and productivity growth. The article shows that it is connected with the loss of demographic dividend, petering out of positive impact of inter-industry reallocation of labor (Baumol's effect), reduction in expenditures growth rates on physical, human capital and R&D, relative slowdown of incomes growth in the real economy against the background of rapid profits growth in financial sphere, enlargement of outsourcing towards developing countries and the increase of instability brought about by almost uncontrolled financialization of the world economy. Although the majority of developing countries with weak institutions and indistinct economic policy could not profit from globalization, it, nevertheless, has enabled the economic upsurge of considerable part of developing world, primarily Asian countries, which are intensively involved in global chains of value creation, possess strong market-oriented states, backed by business-oriented elites, huge masses of relatively cheap, active labor force. Although Asian upsurge was marked by a series of structural defects, its growth model was not very efficient and resulted in heavy ecological consequences and substantial rise in inequality, large Asian developing countries, before the emergence of global crisis, have turned into an engine of global economy, crowding out advanced economies from a number of its important segments. However the developed countries, possessing enormous innovation potential, the qualitative growth of which seems to have been underestimated, are, as it seems to be, capable of enhancing productivity-led growth, provided they could in a short period of time ameliorate their financial systems and invigorate institutions.
Main Page ~ Authors ~ Melyantsev Vitaly