Satarov Georgy

Power and Violence in Russia: Bayesian Scenario Analysis

M.Krechetova and G.Satarov continue the line of reasoning laid out in their article Power and Violence (Russian Case) (see Politeia, 2015, № 4) and attempt to reconcile their thoughts with the current political situation in Russia and the results of scenario forecasting analysis that they carried out in Spring 2016 (together with Yury Blagoveshchensky) in the framework of the joint project of Liberal Mission and INDEM foundations. The study shows that Russia is moving away from the inertial scenario, which seemed most likely only six months ago, towards the scenarios of a “Besieged fortress” and “Explosion” that imply an increase in physical violence.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2016-83-4-68-81

POWER AND VIOLENCE Case of Russia

In order to assess the threat of the Russian authorities’ exercising mass physical violence, M.Krechetova and G.Satarov analyze prerequisites for the realization of this threat and the restrictions that the political leadership may face if it possesses an intention to turn to such measures. After thoroughly elaborating on the terminology used, the authors consider the basic conditions for the growth of political violence (including political rent and weakness of authorities), explore the dynamics of the political violence in Russia and simultaneously touch upon the specific conditions of the expansion of violence in our country. After that the authors, relying on the ideas of Hannah Arendt, refer to the morphology of physical political violence, describing its triggers and limits.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2015-79-4-5-116-139

On Words Substitution

The article raises the question of using “language substitutions” and euphemisms when defining contemporary political regime in Russia. The problem is considered on the examples of the expert discussion on the terms “dictatorship” and “authoritarianism” as well as short-term and medium-term forecasts of the political development of Russia carried out by the Fund Indem. The authors conclude that without reflecting on substitutions that occur as a result of playing around the words, concepts and meanings, and without acknowledging their consequences we risk finding ourselves in a situation described in a famous article by Benjamin Whorf The Relation of Habitual Thought and Behavior to Language, when workers comfortably smoke while standing near the gasoline tanks since the latter are labeled as “empty”.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2013-71-4-23-35

HISTORY FILTERS

In this article the author describes the analytical toolkit for determining whether a particular time period is natural continuation of the previous one or should be interpreted as a qualitatively new one. Having applied the suggested tools on the example of Eltsin and Putin’s stages of the country’s development, G.Satarov comes to the conclusion that due to the drastic growth in numbers of the borrowed negative properties, blocking of positive tendencies, and existence of independent filters that are responsible for such selection, Putin’s stage should be viewed as a rather autonomous time period in the Russian history.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2011-62-3-48-54

TRANSFORMATION OF JUDICIAL POWER IN RUSSIA – ALTERNATIVE VIEW

In the article opening the selection of materials prepared within the 3-year project of the INDEM Foundation Judicial System in Russia: Institutional-Societal Analysis of Transformation, Verification of Results, Determination of Prospects G.Satarov describes the Foundation specialists’ approach towards the analysis of the transformation of the judicial power, the object and content of their study and draw some overall conclusions. According to the Foundation’s experts, the judicial reform in Russia is not finished yet and requires continuation based on new grounds. In order to accomplish real changes in the organization and activity of the judicial power, it is necessary to conduct core reforms not only within this very sphere, but also within other forms of existence of the Russian society and state.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2010-56-1-133-157

INSTITUTES OF CHAOS: THE PROBLEM OF RECOGNITION

Exploitation of chaos in social order is natural and inevitable due to the all-pervading role of fortuity inherent in the nature of things. This role is so fundamental that chaos constitutes the basis of sociality in the same way as the order. But although chaos penetrates human existence at all its levels, the humanity maintains it and reproduces unconsciously, camouflaging and covering such activity. Striving to explain this peculiarity of social existence, G.Satarov studies the phenomenon of fear of the scientific thought before the chaos, analyzes the role of chaos in the physical world and social life, and, taking as examples the institutes of fortunetelling, game and elections, reveals the mechanisms (“legends of cover”) allowing to camouflage the genuine mission of institutes that generate chaos.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2008-50-3-45-66

ON A NEW APPROACH TO THE CONSTRUCTION OF GENERALIZED SOCIOLOGICAL VARIABLES

In the article the methods of so-called popular sociology is subject to the author's criticism. He describes a new sociological approach that is working out by the INDEM Foundation. This approach is based on the new ideology of the sociological data analysis, the application of the new experts and mathematical statistic procedures. The article discusses the methodological basis of the proposed approach, the application procedure and demonstrates the example of its application and its stability testing.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-1999-14-4-173-186

Pages: 173-186