Skulkin Igor

MODELING ELECTORAL FRAUDS

In the article the author tests the efficiency of the existing methods of diagnosing electoral frauds and justifies an alternative approach towards solving this task. The method offered by the author that is based on the values of U-intersections and b-coefficients of the linear regression models of how share of voices received by candidates depends on turnout allows to rather accurately determine the volume of fraud data and therefore, the real level of support for candidates. This method provides an opportunity not only to proceed with research in the sphere of electoral frauds, but also to answer a broader theoretical question: is the enormous margin by which authoritarian incumbents win over their closest rivals a consequence of the public support for the corresponding regimes or is it trivial frauds that pervert expression of voters’ will?

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2012-65-2-138-154

TRIUMPH AND DEMISE OF INSTITUTIONAL REVOLUTIONARY PARTY: LOGIC OF FUNCTIONING OF HEGEMONIC-PARTY SYSTEMS (Magaloni B. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico. — Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006)

I.Skulkin states that one of the indisputable advantages of the work being reviewed is the comprehensive approach towards the electoral process under the conditions of undemocratic regime. The researcher compellingly demonstrates that hegemonic party survival hinges upon several factors at once and it is impossible to adequately account for the final game outcome excluding any of these factors from the analysis. The theoretical model neatly elaborated by the author is based on a number of empirical tests that speak to the robustness of the analysis conducted and validity of its results. Skulkin draws the conclusion that the book by B.Magaloni contributes significantly to the understanding of the internal logic and dynamics of the development of hegemonic-party systems.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2010-5859-3-297-302