¹ 1, 2012
“ARAB SPRING” – COURSE OF ACTIONS, ACTORS, TECHNOLOGY, AND INTERMEDIATE RESULTS
The article is devoted to the analysis of the events in the Middle East and Northern Africa known as “Arab spring”. Having tracked in details the course of the protests in the Arab world and their preliminary results, the author draws the attention to the serious differences in the character of these actions between the states with monarchic and republican regimes. If within the monarchies that were conducting modernization of the conservative type the protests for the most part resulted in reforms, within the republics that headed for the path of radical changes it often ended up with the overthrow of the existing regimes. According to K.Truevtsev’s conclusion, the relative stability of the conservative regimes towards crisis situations provides them with a potential opportunity of the evolutionary movement in the direction of democracy. As regards the republics that underwent violent change of power, the noticeable strengthening of Islamists within them leaves open a question on how democratization will develop further there and whether it will continue at all.
¹ 3, 2009
ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ARAB WORLD: SCENARIOS AND REALITY
In the focus of the author’s attention there is not only the depression itself, but the evaluation of its influence on the destabilization of the Arab regimes. The author considers both the peculiarities of the mentioned processes in different countries and their global projection. K.Truevtsev defines the price of loss caused by the depression in the region under consideration as 2.5 trillion dollars. Significant part of them is devaluation of foreign investments, decline of equity value etc. In Arab countries with average income the economy growth rate and projects of its diversification suffered most of all. Nevertheless, the author concludes, in none of the key countries the crisis has made such a large disparity that we could rate it as a real precondition for the political explosion yet. Additionally in the pre-crisis years many of Arab regimes succeeded in fighting the Islamic threat. The author calls this “a vaccination” against pandemic and thinks that the appearance of the serious challenge of global terror stimulated by the crisis coming from Arab world is highly improbable.
¹ 4, 2007
Islam and globalization: problems of adaptation.
The author analyzes to what extent the Islamic world as a whole and constituting it separate states are prepared for the challenges of globalization. The article ascertains that the Islamic world lacks many important components of post-industrial (and even industrial) development, as well as notes continuing failures of all the existing and those that have existed integration projects (even those comprising the closest countries of the Arab region). Nevertheless, the author is not inclined to unconditionally agree with the clich? regarding the feebleness and doom of the Islamic world and does not exclude searching the very structure of the Islamic world for the elements that would be adequate to the realities of post-industrial society and even the realities of post-modernism. Meanwhile, according to K.Truevtsev, only radical Islamist organizations world networks (being traditional in their basis) correspond to the criteria of globalization.
¹ 2, 2006
Ukraine: the Metastasis of the Disintegration.
The title of the article is not accidental. K. Truevtsev tends to doubt the stability of the Ukrainian statehood. In his opinion the attraction to the external forces (whether it is the West or Russia) prevails over the domestic Ukrainian consolidation. The author is convinced that under the current dynamics the poles have a tendency for further divergence. Under the current structural functional characteristics, the Ukrainian statehood is reaching a point where the Unitarian principal declared in the Constitution is becoming not more than fiction, and any action (or lack of action) of the central power leads to its destruction.
DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2006-41-2-117-128
Pages: 117-128
¹ 2, 2005
«Colour revolutions» and terrorist threat in Central Asia
The author focuses his attention on the phenomenon of ‘colour revolutions’ and assesses the possibility of their spread across the Central Asian states. In relation to the events of spring 2005 in Kyrgyzstan K.Truevtsev studies both external and (in the first place) internal structural reasons and political mechanisms. The article considers as well the processes that could be fraught with far-going impact on stability, unity and territorial integrity of Kyrgyzia. K.Truevtsev believes that the differences between political regimes in Central Asia are quite substantial. He analyzes and compares situations in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan that he qualifies as ‘the region’s sick person”. The article is focused on such key and explosive part of the region as the Fergana valley and elucidates the role of the Islamic factor.
DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2005-37-2-5-21
Pages: 5-21
¹ 1, 2005
Political systems of Russia and Kazakhstan: comparative analysis
The author is focused on studying the issue of vitality of the political structure in post-Soviet states and the possibility in principle of their further political evolutionary transformation. Russia and Kazakhstan - countries having a lot in common, according to K.Truevtsev - were chosen as objects of the comparative analysis. Meanwhile, the transformations in Russia, especially in the years 1990-1993, were of a revolutionary kind, with the majority of soviet system's components having undergone radical modifications. Kazakhstan's political regime was also desovietized, but the changes were mostly evolutionary. In other words, that was the realization of Gorbachev's model of progressive transformation from totalitarianism to democracy through "soft authoritarianism". From this starting point K.Truevtsev assesses the prospects of further political development of the countries concerned.
DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2005-36-1-5-21
Pages: 5-21
¹ 3, 2004
Unification of the post-soviet territory, tendencies and projects
The author states that in the post-soviet territory the vertical factor of integration processes and tendencies changed for the horizontal one. This objectively fits into the dominating tendencies of strengthening of horizontal links under postindustrial society and globalization. However, this by no means fits into the process of power vertical strengthening in Russia.
The author thinks that the law on changing the election of governors into their appointment is hasty and shortsighted. K. Truevtsev predicts the growth of federalist tendencies in the CIS countries, which will inevitably result in the involvement of neighboring states into the Russian orbit. However, in any case this can be only federal Russia and not unitary.
DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2004-34-3-43-59
Pages: 43-59
¹ 3, 2003
Arab world in the XX-th century, the development of the national idea
The author believes that the Arab national idea is closely linked with the appearance and development of Arab nationalism as an ideological political movement. Initially the Arab nation was associated with Asians territories and only after World War I it extended to the whole habitat of Arabs. Later the national idea turned into panarabic political project, which was actively implemented during Gamal Abdel Nasser’s presidency. The article addresses the influence of anti-colonial struggle, relationships with the West and the establishment of the State of Israel on the Arab national idea. According to K. Truevtsev, in the historical combat with pan-islamism pan-arabism obviously came to an all-around failure playing a support role in the Palestinian problem.
DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2003-30-3-104-118
Pages: 104-118
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Truevtsev Konstantin
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