№ 2, 2006
Three alternative scenarios of the events after the elections of 2007-2008 (“political decentralization”, “new monocentrism” and “the third term”) are reviewed by the author. The author points to the signs of the fragmentation of the current political regime in which he seeks to determine its reasons and the extent to which it can be controlled as well as the conditions under which it may become uncontrollable. The work covers the evaluation of the potential centers of power and influence in the framework of the changing political balance.
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