The author believes that on the eve of the XXI-st century, in fact, a new political epoch related to the name of the new president started. The article outlines this epoch. An attempt is made to define the vector of political development and to give the scenarios of the development for the nearest future.
I. Bunin analyzes the phenomenon of Vladimir Putin’s stable popu larity with the Russian people. The author researches the change o f the role of the government and oligarchs and the new situation at the State Duma and the Federation Council.
According to I. Bunin, the actions of the public power have generally become more efficient, and the behavior of the political class has become more predictable. The danger of political cataclysms and of abrupt returning to the past is much weaker comparing with the previous years.
The article covers the research of the change in the mass conscious ness, which have taken place during the last decade. The author designates three periods in this dynamics. He characterizes each of them and evalu ates their modernization and anti-modernization component. Using the materials of the leading Russian centers for public opinion research, A. Zudin analyzes the fluctuations in the attitude of the population to the West and to the private property market. He focuses his attention on the opinions on the situation in Russia, its position in the world, on the state and political system. The author believes that lately it has become legitimate to speak about the advent of the «new ideological order» supported and protected by the state. He formulates the main features of this order.
The empiric basis of the article is the data of the sociological survey conducted by the Center of Political Technologies among the State Duma members. The author focuses his attention on the expression of the factor of ideology in the parliamentary policy and the ideological attitudes of different factions and individual deputies. This factor is analyzed through its relations with different problems including the private property on land, privatization, the state support to unprofitable enterprises, the advisability of Western investments etc.
The author researches the current state and the prospects of one ofthe biggest political parties the Communist party of the Russian Federation (CPRF). The article touches upon its electoral, organizational and image resources. In his opinion, its major problem lies in the disappearance of the traditional for the CPRF duality, under which the party kept the balance between the oppositionism and fitting into the existing political system. The article analyzes the dynamics of the communist electorate. The prob lems of the party leadership and ideology are researched.
The article reviews the current state of the domestic and foreign state PR. According to the author, in the first case, the system requires a sub stantial correction. It is trapped by the policy of moves and is hardly capable to influence the population when the long-term problems are solved. The system of foreign PR necessary for the country in the period of stable development and capable of consistent and methodological building of the positive image of Russia abroad will have to be created from the scratch.
The author describes the aim of his work as the attempt of the system analysis of the process of the regional power and the oligarchs merging and of the forms of their interaction. In this respect, he designates and analyzes the three models of regional authorities behavior. In R. Turovskiy’s opinion, the process of the intensive search of the common meeting ground was shaped comparatively not long ago, and it is paradoxically related to the policy of the new president. As a result, both subjects feel to be in the role of a victim.
Investigating the mechanisms of foreign policy decision making in post-soviet Russia the author thoroughly describes the three groups of fac tors, which determine the mode of functioning of these mechanisms. These are: 1) external challenges (this category includes both the impulses of modem origin coming from abroad and the circumstances of historical nature inherited by the Russian Federation from its predecessors, first of all from the USSR, as well as from the Russian Empire; 2) general char acteristics o f the political regime (institutional, subjective and ideological); 3) domestic policy actors (federal, executive and legislative bodies, regional elites, political parties, political clubs, non-governmental organizations, religious confessions), and the dynamics of the mood of the society. The author concludes that contrasting to the public opinion, in the 1990-ies, in Russia, a more or less efficient system of foreign policy decision making and realization meeting the minimum requirements of effectiveness was formed. It was shaping under the conditions when the integral idea about Russia’s desired place in the world lacked. The main goal of the new decade should become the optimization of this system developing parallel to working out such an idea and to the process of foreign policy contexts defragmentation.
The article states that the events of the September 11, 2001 put in motion the world order, which was shaped in the previous decade. In then- forecast, the authors make an attempt to outline both the new transitional world order and the new geopolitical paradigm, in the framework of which, the new role of American allies, the changing rules of the game, the relations with the Muslim world and Russia are reviewed.
The authors characterize the genre of political forecast and analyze the experience gained in this area by the Center of Political Technologies. The logic of the Center of Political Technologies forecasts is not, as a rule, limited by the prophecy. It is the definition of the combinations and consequences of each of the variants possible at the start. According to the authors, such models create a full picture and may act as the starting point for political planning.
This article was first published in 1990 in the Danish magazine «Udenrigs», and is an example of the realized forecast. It predicted the disintegration of the USSR and the non-violent character of the coming disintegration, M.S. Gorbachev’s resign, the real federalization of the RSFSR and the increase of the corruption and organized crime.
The material presents the chronicle of the Center of Political Technologies activity during the whole period of its existence; the directions and the forms of this activity are designated. The article touches upon the publishing activity (books, the series of regular information and forecast newsletters), sociological surveys (including among the deputies of different Dumas), the Center of Political Technologies involvement in the election campaigns (in the different Russian regions, Ukraine, Estonia, Moldavia and Kazakhstan) and other projects.