In this article the author tries to give the general description of the current world depression and represent its relatively whole situation. In his opinion, the objective estimation of the reasons and consequences of crisis is the conclusive condition of the appropriate reaction on its challenges. A.Galkin, analyzing the spectrum and dynamics of the crisis interpretation, pays attention to the essential characteristics of the present situation. In the sphere of his attention there is specifically the problem of different interchanging cycles, their coincidence and combinations. The socio-political cycle that seems to overlap with big economic fails, attracts special author's attention. The current globalization model which has modified the national governments functions and the regulative opportunities on their territories is named in the article as the source of new serious contradictions. Are there any odds as the result of the crisis there will be a new quality that will be able to more adequately react to the modern challenges? A.Galkin leaves this question open. He thinks that for the whole world’s renewal as shown by the past more time and efforts are needed.
Despite the progress achieved in information technologies and creation of knowledge economy basics, the developed countries already before the global crisis have faced a substantial slowdown in GDP and productivity growth. The article shows that it is connected with the loss of demographic dividend, petering out of positive impact of inter-industry reallocation of labor (Baumol's effect), reduction in expenditures growth rates on physical, human capital and R&D, relative slowdown of incomes growth in the real economy against the background of rapid profits growth in financial sphere, enlargement of outsourcing towards developing countries and the increase of instability brought about by almost uncontrolled financialization of the world economy. Although the majority of developing countries with weak institutions and indistinct economic policy could not profit from globalization, it, nevertheless, has enabled the economic upsurge of considerable part of developing world, primarily Asian countries, which are intensively involved in global chains of value creation, possess strong market-oriented states, backed by business-oriented elites, huge masses of relatively cheap, active labor force. Although Asian upsurge was marked by a series of structural defects, its growth model was not very efficient and resulted in heavy ecological consequences and substantial rise in inequality, large Asian developing countries, before the emergence of global crisis, have turned into an engine of global economy, crowding out advanced economies from a number of its important segments. However the developed countries, possessing enormous innovation potential, the qualitative growth of which seems to have been underestimated, are, as it seems to be, capable of enhancing productivity-led growth, provided they could in a short period of time ameliorate their financial systems and invigorate institutions.
This article puts forward and argues the thesis that it’s illegitimate to lead the reasons of the world depression only to financial and economical aspects. In the author's opinion, first of all, it is the result of the crisis of the state-based world structure, which comes from the Westphalia peace of the 1648. Such model of the world setup is becoming too limited for the modern reality. More and more often the interests of the national governments contradict to economic system principles. Today its development is happening against a background of global political risks increase. The author underlines that in future it will be impossible for our world to avoid crisis and other crucial points without new political structure. The new “rules of the game” should reflect the global trends of the world development and the modern tendencies in political world structure. First of all, there should be versatility (fundamental extension of the quantity of the states that take part in solving international problems) and multilevel structure (interaction of governmental and non-governmental actors).
Paradigms of Public Development
Analyzing the spectrum of crisis influence on the society and the degree of effectiveness of the anti-crisis arrangements, the author focuses his attention on their social aspects. K.Kholodkovsky builds the hierarchy of the social and political instability demonstration possible during the crisis. In this range there are local protests, the decline of government and its leaders’ rates, nation-wide protests, the bust of governments, the radicals rise to power and, finally, collapse and chaos. The author makes the forecast of possible social and political stability violations in case of crisis stalling in Russia. The most probable scenario according to the author's opinion is development of spontaneous local protest actions with rising frequency and violence, however, with low probability of transformation into one powerful nation-wide movement.
Analyzing the Vatican City documents and the works of Catholic authors, O.Velichko is focusing her attention on the parts, which are directly linked with current global depression. Catholic theoretical thought and scientific publicism discover three main components of world depression which Catholics consider both economic and moral. The source and energy of crisis is the world financial system imperfection. The second feature is the practical lack of social responsibility of enterprise. The third component is the disregard of basic moral principles which is impending dehumanization of the society. Supporters of Catholic social theory come to an agreement that uncontrolled and unlimited liberalism exhausted itself. Its fails as the Catholic Church imagines give a chance to its social doctrine and propagandized “social market economy”.
In the author’s opinion, after the crisis of 1929 the humanity was choosing between 3 variants of exit from capitalism: soviet Communism, German national-socialism and “the new course” of Roosevelt, which was the course directed to the postindustrial society. In 1991 the victory above the state socialism hampered the postindustrial development and even caused the retreat towards the oligarchic capitalism. In the whole world there was mass process of diversion from different forms of governmental regulation for benefit of oligarchic administration of economy. G.Popov supposes that among different reasons of crisis, this one is the main. The author thinks that the modern financial system is the base of crisis. At the beginning the world of fictitious capital became the second face in economy, but now it turned to be the first and the main. In this article the necessity of the new system of solving old problems is established. The author states his own selection of appropriate urgent and long-term arrangements.
In the work of F.Shelov-Kovedyaev there is a view on the current crisis as a complicated combination of accumulated multilayered and aggravating events. The author thinks that the existent situation has a common cultural character and doesn’t have an exclusively economical source. The global crisis happens against the background of the West civilization break. The article provides a broad historical retrospective review with variants of efforts of previous escapes from difficulties and not their solutions. To his mind, in Russia all interrelated crises and challenges overlapped with the internal problems that principally aggravate the whole passing this common to all mankind disease. On top the author supposes that the Russian government struggles with the wrong crisis. Having non-liberal economics it pushes for non-liberal arrangements. F.Shelov-Kovedyaev predicts that if the current course continues to exist, Russia will be the last to exit the crisis.
Regional and State Aspects
In this article the author considers economical and social policy of the European Union in crisis conditions, its efforts in the financial markets stabilization. As for EU the current crisis has two specific features. The first is connected with the change of EU role in international differentiation of labor and risk of remission of its competitive position in the world. The second is coming from the recent expansion of EU to the East, in case of which the transitional economics of new members has become an indispensable part of its common economic landscape. O.Butorina thinks that the biggest downturn in the history of EU creates not only new opportunities, but also new challenges. It puts a task to united Europe to produce the new economical strategy as soon as possible. Crisis has again put a question about correlation of economical and political components of European integration. In the lack of powers, which are usual for superior body of a federate state, EU institutes influence on economics is extremely limited. Complicated allocation of responsibility areas among the members of commonwealth and supranational structures, and also an extremely complicated decision-making process hamper the firm and effective actions of EU.
The post-Socialist countries which became a relatively recent and the largest reinforcement of the European Union are the research objects of the article. Practically all of them have survived through the “transformational” crisis of 1990s followed with rapid economical upturn. Its sources (impressive capital inflow from the “old” Europe, the export extension into Euro zone etc.) crossed with the beginning of the world depression. N.Bukharin and I.Yazhborovskaya explore the situation specifics in each of the countries, reveal their common problems, and analyze the effectiveness of the national anti-crisis programs. Also the authors are interested in the spectrum of possible political consequences of the crisis.
The main accent of this work is made on the new place of China in the modern world and the tendencies that will define its interconnection with the world. The author states that if the reforms of the last 30 years in this country proved that the development of China is inseparable from the development of the whole world, now it is obvious, that the development of the whole world is inseparable from the development of China. That’s why it’s important to consider the rise of China in the context of its successful use of a chance of the globalization phenomenon. The Chinese model has shaped during the process of adaptation to the economic globalization and China itself is the integral part of this process. The most tangible manifestation of the world crisis influence on China was the decline of its export, at the same time China practically haven’t directly suffered from the financial depression. A.Karneev supposes that thanks to crisis the Chinese elite got an additional break to analyze the variants of further strategy. It is even more necessary, as the efforts of the government face and will face lots of problems and pitfalls within the country.
In the focus of the author’s attention there is not only the depression itself, but the evaluation of its influence on the destabilization of the Arab regimes. The author considers both the peculiarities of the mentioned processes in different countries and their global projection. K.Truevtsev defines the price of loss caused by the depression in the region under consideration as 2.5 trillion dollars. Significant part of them is devaluation of foreign investments, decline of equity value etc. In Arab countries with average income the economy growth rate and projects of its diversification suffered most of all. Nevertheless, the author concludes, in none of the key countries the crisis has made such a large disparity that we could rate it as a real precondition for the political explosion yet. Additionally in the pre-crisis years many of Arab regimes succeeded in fighting the Islamic threat. The author calls this “a vaccination” against pandemic and thinks that the appearance of the serious challenge of global terror stimulated by the crisis coming from Arab world is highly improbable.
Research group ZIRCON
First results of all-Russian research, which are connected with dynamics of state of public opinion during the crisis, can be found in the material of study group ZIRCON. The research was made in March of 2009. The selection included 1603 respondents from 132 settlements of 30 subjects of Russian Federation. At the same time with nation-wide public-opinion poll the sampling poll of “middle class” (people with high income, high self-concept of social status and economic conditions) was held. The research was dedicated to revealing the opinions of Russian citizens about duration of crisis, future prospects about financial condition, and ideas about main subjects of their social defense.